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Post by brobear on Jan 11, 2018 5:46:27 GMT -5
If you have watched the documentary "Dark Winter" then you know that climate change is real; although not as being told by politicians. According to the scientists doing the study, there was global warming which ended ( if I remember correctly ) in 2008. This climate change is not being caused by human-made pollution ( although without a doubt pollution is bad ) but rather by the sun. The climate is in its natural cycle and the global temperature is now cooling. Yes, on our way to another Ice Age.
But we are in for some hard times long before we reach the peak of an Ice Age. We are looking at a 30-year winter ... coming soon.
But, this topic is - how will climate change effect our favorite bears?
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Post by tom on Apr 14, 2018 15:38:15 GMT -5
Dark Winter part 1
Dark Winter part 2
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Post by Polar on Apr 14, 2018 18:37:18 GMT -5
We are in a global warming period (advanced human industrialism and technological manufacturing caused this) for the past 50 years, but within this period, the Earth is cooling down because of a natural cooling wave processes of the planet. But overall, we are warming up!
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Post by brobear on Apr 14, 2018 18:51:44 GMT -5
Global warming ended in 2008; it was a short-lived event which is natural just before an ice age event. The global tempts are cooling... The documentary was made by scientists; if it were fake it would have been challenged and on the news. The Liberals made weather a political issue. They are still lying about global warming. The global annual tempts are going down - cooling.
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Post by Polar on Apr 14, 2018 21:28:23 GMT -5
No, it is well-proven that humans are committing about all of the nitrogen and CO2 gases in the atmosphere for about a few hundred years, ever since the start of the Industrial Revolution. However, for the past 50 years, global warming has been uprising at a faster rate than ever because of recent developments in technology and much more automated, manufactured industries.
Sure, we are in a cooling period caused by a more natural phenomenon of air passages around the Earth from the Arctic, but un-naturally, we are causing the warming. Just because it got severely cold one day doesn't mean that temperatures can't get hotter (on average) within the year. Global warming is not a lie.
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Post by tom on Apr 15, 2018 1:25:38 GMT -5
www.friendsofscience.org/index.php?id=3MYTH 1: Global temperatures are rising at a rapid, unprecedented rate. FACT: The HadCRUT4 surface temperature index, produced by the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office and the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, shows warming to 1878, cooling to 1911, warming to 1941, cooling to 1964, warming to 1998 and cooling through 2011. The warming rate from 1964 to 1998 was the same as the previous warming from 1911 to 1941. Satellites, weather balloons and ground stations all show cooling from 2002 through mid 2015, then this warming pause ended with a large El Nino event starting late 2015. The average of two analysis of satellite data gives a trend from 1979 to Nov. 2017 of 0.13 ºC/decade, which is less than half of the corresponding trend of 0.27 ºC/decade of the climate models. The mild warming of about 0.7 ºC over the 20th century is well within the natural variations recorded in the last millennium. The ground station network suffers from an uneven distribution across the globe; the stations are preferentially located in growing urban and industrial areas ("heat islands"), which show substantially higher readings than adjacent rural areas ("land use effects"). Two science teams have shown that correcting the surface temperature record for the effects of urban development would reduce the reported warming trend over land from 1980 by half. See here. There has been no catastrophic warming recorded. MYTH 2: The "hockey stick" graph proves that the earth has experienced a steady, very gradual temperature decrease for 1000 years, then recently began a sudden increase. FACT: Significant changes in climate have continually occurred throughout geologic time. For instance, the Medieval Warm Period, from around 1000 to1200 AD (when the Vikings farmed on Greenland) was followed by a period known as the Little Ice Age. Since the end of the 17th Century the "average global temperature" has been rising at the low steady rate mentioned above; although from 1940 – 1970 temperatures actually dropped, leading to a Global Cooling scare. The "hockey stick", a poster boy of both the UN's IPCC and Canada's Environment Department, ignores historical recorded climatic swings, and has now also been proven to be flawed and statistically unreliable as well. It is a computer construct and a faulty one at that. See here for more information. MYTH 3: Human produced carbon dioxide has increased over the last 100 years, adding to the Greenhouse effect, thus causing most of the earth's warming of the last 100 years. FACT: Carbon dioxide levels have indeed changed for various reasons, human and otherwise, just as they have throughout geologic time. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the CO2 content of the atmosphere has increased by about 120 part per million (ppm), most of which is likely due to human-caused CO2 emissions. The RATE of growth during this century has been about 0.55%/year. However, there is no proof that CO2 is the main driver of global warming. As measured in ice cores dated over many thousands of years, CO2 levels move up and down AFTER the temperature has done so, and thus are the RESULT OF, NOT THE CAUSE of warming. Geological field work in recent sediments confirms this causal relationship. There is solid evidence that, as temperatures move up and down naturally and cyclically through solar radiation, orbital and galactic influences, the warming surface layers of the earth's oceans expel more CO2 as a result. MYTH 4: CO2 is the most common greenhouse gas. FACT: Greenhouse gases form about 3% of the atmosphere by volume. They consist of varying amounts, (about 97%) of water vapour and clouds, with the remainder being gases like CO2, CH4, Ozone and N2O, of which carbon dioxide is the largest amount. Hence, CO2 constitutes about 0.04% of the atmosphere. While the minor gases are more effective as "greenhouse agents" than water vapour and clouds, the latter are overwhelming the effect by their sheer volume and – in the end – are thought to be responsible for 75% of the "Greenhouse effect". (See here) At current concentrations, a 3% change of water vapour in the atmosphere would have the same effect as a 100% change in CO2. Those attributing climate change to CO2 rarely mention these important facts. MYTH 5: Computer models verify that CO2 increases will cause significant global warming. FACT: The computer models assume that CO2 is the primary climate driver, and that the Sun has an insignificant effect on climate. Using the output of a model to verify its initial assumption is committing the logical fallacy of circular reasoning. Computer models can be made to roughly match the 20th century temperature rise by adjusting many input parameters and using strong positive feedbacks. They do not "prove" anything. Also, computer models predicting global warming are incapable of properly including the effects of the sun, cosmic rays and the clouds. The sun is a major cause of temperature variation on the earth surface as its received radiation changes all the time, This happens largely in cyclical fashion. The number and the lengths in time of sunspots can be correlated very closely with average temperatures on earth, e.g. the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period. Varying intensity of solar heat radiation affects the surface temperature of the oceans and the currents. Warmer ocean water expels gases, some of which are CO2. Solar radiation interferes with the cosmic ray flux, thus influencing the amount ionized nuclei which control cloud cover. MYTH 6: The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has proven that man–made CO2 causes global warming. FACT: In a 1996 report by the UN on global warming, two statements were deleted from the final draft approved and accepted by a panel of scientists. Here they are:
1) “None of the studies cited above has shown clear evidence that we can attribute the observed climate changes to increases in greenhouse gases.”
2) “No study to date has positively attributed all or part of the climate change to man–made causes”
To the present day there is still no scientific proof that man-made CO2 causes significant global warming. See a Wall Street Journal article here. MYTH 7: CO2 is a pollutant. FACT: This is absolutely not true. Nitrogen forms 80% of our atmosphere. We could not live in 100% nitrogen either. Carbon dioxide is no more a pollutant than nitrogen is. CO2 is essential to life on earth. It is necessary for plant growth since increased CO2 intake as a result of increased atmospheric concentration causes many trees and other plants to grow more vigorously. Unfortunately, the Canadian Government has included CO2 with a number of truly toxic and noxious substances listed by the Environmental Protection Act, only as their means to politically control it. The graph here shows changes in vegetative cover due to CO2 fertilization between 1982 and 2010 (Donohue et al., 2013 GRL). A major study here shows that CO2 fertilization will likely increase the value of crop production between now and 2050 by an additional $11.7 trillion ($US 2014). See here for more discussion. MYTH 8: Global warming will cause more storms and other weather extremes. FACT: There is no scientific or statistical evidence whatsoever that supports such claims on a global scale. Regional variations may occur. Growing insurance and infrastructure repair costs, particularly in coastal areas, are sometimes claimed to be the result of increasing frequency and severity of storms, whereas in reality they are a function of increasing population density, escalating development value, and ever more media reporting. See here for graphs and discussion of extreme weather. MYTH 9: Receding glaciers and the calving of ice shelves are proof of man-made global warming. FACT: Glaciers have been receding and growing cyclically for hundreds of years. Recent glacier melting is a consequence of coming out of the very cool period of the Little Ice Age. Ice shelves have been breaking off for centuries. Scientists know of at least 33 periods of glaciers growing and then retreating. It’s normal. Besides, changes to glacier's extent is dependent as much on precipitation as on temperature. MYTH 10: The earth’s poles are warming and the polar ice caps are breaking up and melting. FACT: The earth is variable. The Arctic Region had warmed from 1966 to 2005, due to cyclic events in the Pacific Ocean and soot from Asia darkening the ice, but there has been no warming since 2005. Current temperatures are the same as in 1943. The small Palmer Peninsula of Antarctica is getting warmer, while the main Antarctic continent is actually cooling. Ice cap thicknesses in both Greenland and Antarctica are incr
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Post by brobear on Apr 15, 2018 2:56:39 GMT -5
Nice Tom. Yes, there is a rhythm in the natural weather cycle. There was indeed a short-lived burst of global warming that had lasted for about 40 years or so. But according to this natural rhythm, caused by the breathing of the sun, which controls the solar flares, we are now heading into the next Ice Age. All this according to the scientific studies. About fertilizer causing problems: I laughed the first time I ever heard this on the news. Consider all the dinosaurs and later on mammoths and mastodons producing massive quantities of "fertilizer" all over the landscape; plus the giant sharks and whales in our oceans. Duh. *Note: I gave this some thought... since the weather has become political, as ridiculous as this sounds, its true, the internet is polluted with fake-science studies. Just like the big cat fan-boys trying to prove there favorite predator is the best fighter by twisting and bending things to suit there purpose, so too are the two sides of this subject. I prefer to believe that mankind has not snatched weather control from the hands of God and that the weather is well within its natural cycle. Only a bunch of really crooked politicians could talk scientists into producing fake news; but evidently one side or the other has done just that.
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Post by tom on Apr 15, 2018 9:52:30 GMT -5
I'll tell you what, were experiencing some global cooling in Minnesota yesterday and today. 14" of snow and counting with temps in the 20's in mid April. Normal highs for this date are 58 degrees.
Geez... We may go from winter directly to summer and skip the spring. Most lakes should be ice out by now and we still have 30" of ice on many lakes.
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Post by brobear on Apr 15, 2018 10:10:04 GMT -5
And, according to some scientists, a 30-year-long Winter on the way. Those who have the property to do so should save seeds and build a couple of greenhouses. Farmers are likely to be looking for jobs and learning new trades.
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Post by tom on Apr 15, 2018 10:37:17 GMT -5
And, according to some scientists, a 30-year-long Winter on the way. Those who have the property to do so should save seeds and build a couple of greenhouses. Farmers are likely to be looking for jobs and learning new trades. Hopefully I'll be long gone if that happens.
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Post by brobear on Apr 15, 2018 12:08:53 GMT -5
And, according to some scientists, a 30-year-long Winter on the way. Those who have the property to do so should save seeds and build a couple of greenhouses. Farmers are likely to be looking for jobs and learning new trades. Hopefully I'll be long gone if that happens. According to the "Dark Winter" scientists; you will probably experience this. They say the time to prepare is today.
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Post by tom on Apr 15, 2018 12:20:04 GMT -5
If this happens and I respect the opinion of a renowned Scientist, but science isn't always 100% accurate, what can we expect as far as "how much cooling" are we talking about, an average temperature drop of say 10 degrees over the course of 30 years or what realistically are we talking about?
10 degrees would be huge globally in that short of a time span. Other questions... would this cooling be very gradual or a sharp drop off. A sharp drop off would be severe while gradual would see temps drop slowly over the course of their predicted 30 year mini cycle and may not be catastrophic in nature. Of course I'm just speculating as I have not seen their detailed predictions.
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Post by brobear on Apr 15, 2018 12:46:45 GMT -5
www.lewis-clark.org/article/375 The term "Little Ice Age" applies to a period of cooler and wetter weather in parts of the northern hemisphere. The date of onset depends largely on location. The Norse colonies on Greenland had already succumbed to increasing cold by the early 1300s, but glacial studies in the Rockies and Pacific Northwest suggest that glacial increase did not begin there until the early 1400s, and then the increase was quite slow. The "cold maximum" occurred in the mid-1700s (picture George Washington crossing the Delaware River amid ice floes—now non-existent—or hauling his cannons across the ice of rivers that haven't frozen over since). Many glaciers in the Northwest, however, did not reach their maximum extent in the early 1800s. The main cold period had ended in most places by the mid-1800s, but temperature graphs show a slight increase in some areas until the early 1900s, then the temperature dropped again, only to begin rising again after the 1940s.
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Post by brobear on Sept 25, 2018 14:13:43 GMT -5
www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/ice_ages.html " What we are seeing really is just another interglacial phase within our big icehouse climate." Dismissing political calls for a global effort to reverse climate change, she said, " It's really farcical because the climate has been changing constantly... What we should do is be more aware of the fact that it is changing and that we should be ready to adapt to the change." *In my own words... I agree with this. Most of you will not. That's OK. Some will panic; I will not. Regardless of if you believe the weather is warming or the weather is cooling, we do agree that climate change is real.
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Post by tom on Sept 25, 2018 14:59:12 GMT -5
Interesting discussion guys. Fact is there is a lot of corroborating evidence that points to man's imprint on global warming. How much is exact science and how much is an "educated guess" so to speak, depends on who you talk to I think. I still feel the Earth has going thru many periods for millions of years of cooling and warming thru natural causes if you will. Since the industrial revolution there is much talk about the greenhouse gas affects on the warming of the lower atmosphere. Heat can't escape thru the upper atmosphere due to this greenhouse affect. Again, is this a proven fact or are there still things that scientists still don't know or understand about the natural affects on the earth due to changes beyond our knowledge. Here is an interesting graph showing someone's idea of what has happened in the last 600,000 years as far as carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. Note: 1950 to present relates to year 0. This graph, based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores and more recent direct measurements, provides evidence that atmospheric CO2 has increased since the Industrial Revolution. (Credit: Vostok ice core data/J.R. Petit et al.; NOAA Mauna Loa CO2 record. Full article: climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
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Post by tom on Sept 25, 2018 15:08:04 GMT -5
The graph above is for carbon dioxide levels only. Before man you can still plainly see that carbon dioxide levels have gone up and down for 100's of thousands of years, although never above the 1950 level which is interesting. Some claim the variation in the Earth's orbit could have played a part in the variations with orbits further from the sun causing less and vice verse for closer orbits. Core samples taken from ice in Greenland and Antarctica were used to measure carbon dioxide levels. If you read the article it explains how scientists made their findings.
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Post by brobear on Sept 29, 2018 5:03:00 GMT -5
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2019 2:57:42 GMT -5
Brown bears and black bears are the most adaptable of the bears while polar bears and int pandas are the least adaptable.
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Post by brobear on Jan 21, 2019 7:40:57 GMT -5
It could happen this year or it might not happen for another thousand years, but at some point in time the Yellowstone super volcano is going to explode. How many N. American grizzly bears will survive; not only the explosion but the after effects? Another reason to transport some grizzlies into S. Africa.
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Post by King Kodiak on Jan 21, 2019 8:22:33 GMT -5
Yeah Brobear i heard about the Yellowstone volcano. It will be catastrophic. nothing will survive in a very large radius. You have a good reason there, but i would rather move them to somewhere else.
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